Recently, Changjiang Securities released a research report saying that the current consumption of beer in my country is still dominated by the middle and low grades, and the upgrading potential is considerable. The main views of Changjiang Securities are as follows:
The mainstream grades of beer products are still dominated by mid-to-low grades, and the upgrade potential is still considerable. As of 2021, the average consumption price of non-current beverages is still only 5 yuan/500ml, which means that from the current product consumption level, the main domestic consumption is still from low-end products. The large single products that are mainly promoted and accelerated (the internal proportion keeps increasing) are mostly positioned at the second highest price (6~10 yuan). As the new mainstream of 8 yuan replaces the old mainstream of 5 yuan, it is expected to still be used for the industry Bringing about a 60% price increase; in addition, the industry’s high-end and ultra-high-end price band products are also accelerating the layout, constantly enriching the upgrade map of beer products.
The short-term impact of the epidemic will drag down the upgrade of beer, and the full recovery of the future scenario is expected to drive the price increase. The high-end process of ready-to-drink (catering, entertainment) channels, which account for half of beer consumption scenarios, is relatively advanced compared to non-spot-drinks. Restrictions of such scenarios have occurred from time to time since the epidemic. Therefore, the industry price increase in the past two years is not an overdraft. Or ahead, but restrained. In the future, with the full recovery of the current consumption scene, the industry is also expected to usher in an accelerated upgrade (price increase).
Changes and changes in the beer sector from the financial report
Judging from the growth performance of the beer sector in 2021, the trend of price increase-driven profit improvement continues; the main logic of the beer sector is still the profit improvement driven by product upgrades, together with the improvements driven by cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, which are the industry’s high-end development stage. of “open source” and “throttle”.
The peak season of 2022 will usher in a low base of sales, and the demand side and cost pressure will bring marginal disturbances. The industry sales volume from May to September 2021 will decline by 6~10% year-on-year; from 21Q4 to 22Q1, the sales volume of the beer industry will remain within ±2% compared with the CAGR in 2019, and the subsequent 22Q2 beer industry will enter a period of low base volume However, since March, the new round of epidemic has also affected logistics transportation and consumption scenarios, and it is expected that there will still be marginal disturbances to demand in 22Q2. In addition, the raw materials of beer have risen to varying degrees, which has catalyzed a new round of large-scale price increases in the industry in 21Q4. It is expected that with the implementation of the industry’s price increase dividends, the pressure is expected to gradually ease.
Quality upgrade, marketing breakout, and get rid of the stereotype of product homogeneity and low quality
The high-end upgrade of the industry has broken the stereotype that the products are generally low-quality, and the marketing investment focuses more on the fit between the brand and the product, so as to break through to the younger generation.
In recent years, the product iteration in the beer industry has accelerated, and the path is clear – traditional lager heightened (high wort concentration), white beer flavor (extension of fruity flavor), craft brewing/non-alcohol and even other low-alcohol category extension of non-beer . Marketing focuses on product scenarios and brand tonality—localization of international brands and high-end fission of local brands.
Choose young and communicative spokespersons, infiltrate strong cultural and entertainment products, and highlight the tonality of brands and products; more emphasis is placed on communicating with consumers in marketing.
Post time: May-31-2022